Throne speech kicks off election strategy

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/11/2015 (3713 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Let the provincial election begin. While Manitobans don’t go to the polls until April, Monday’s throne speech outlined very clearly what Premier Greg Selinger is going to build his campaign on, what he’s calling a growth strategy but what is really a spend-to-grow strategy.

The throne speech unveiled some pretty hefty projects, with pretty hefty price tags:

• relocating the rail yards, which will take years to accomplish, if ever;
• a commitment to ramping up infrastructure projects — paid for by a PST increase introduced two years ago — with plans to extend the program beyond 2020, making it worth $10 billion-plus;
• providing the City of Winnipeg $1 billion over five years in a partnership for roads, transit, waste-water treatment and rec centres;
• creating a universally accessible child-care system with 12,000 additional spaces in five to seven years.

Reading the goodie passages, it looks as if the provincial government’s fingers want to be in every building pot, ingratiating itself with various organizations, making nebulous promises without hard figures, money-wise.

When asked about controlling the deficit, Mr. Selinger stuck to his argument that now is not the time for austerity. Now is the time for investing in infrastructure — both physical and social — while interest rates are low.

Mr. Selinger pointed out Manitoba has the lowest jobless rate in the country, noting the Conference Board of Canada has determined our economy is the strongest in the country. But he also said the Canadian economy is starting to falter. And with it, will Manitoba also start to decline? Mr. Selinger couldn’t say.

Mr. Selinger was pressed about the partnership arrangements he’s promoting with the City of Winnipeg, suggesting the province would pay for one-third to one-half of the price tags on the new infrastructure projects, with an eye toward the city kicking in matching funds. That means taxpayers are on the hook at the city level as well, with no firm commitment to help municipalities find alternative streams of revenue other than property-tax increases.

A pity, really, given that winning Winnipeg seats is necessary for any government to remain in power. No doubt Mr. Selinger had his eye on that prize when he rolled out the infrastructure goodies.

But don’t be fooled.

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The premier did not definitively rule out tax increases, saying there were no immediate plans, but then hedged his bets by saying nothing is certain. Hardly reassuring.

The NDP has the sales job of its political life ahead of it. That’s not easy to do when the province is falling deeper in debt. The latest public accounts, laying out 2014’s full numbers last July, show the Selinger government remains addicted to deficit financing. Monday’s throne speech did little to calm the concerns about this.

Of course, Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister also did not speak of deficit reduction in his alternative budget speech Friday, and told reporters he could not pin a date by which he would balance the budget. He continued his promise to cut the PST, provide tax relief for lower income families, and he remained committed to maintaining front-line services in Manitoba.

So, this sets up the campaign in April. A choice between tax relief or a spend-to-grow strategy (and no guarantee our taxes won’t go up) with very little in concrete terms to cut the deficit and manage the debt — the things that pushed a bond-rating agency to downgrade Manitoba’s credit on the market.

Some choices.